Vitesse
Almere City FC
The model leans Vitesse at 41%. Expected goals: Vitesse 2.10, Almere City FC 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 74%. Vitesse won 2 of their last 4; Almere City FC won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitesse | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Almere City FC | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vitesse. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.10 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.1%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.7%
- 3–25.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vitesse −0.5| Vitesse line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 19% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 21% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 16% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.