Jong FC Utrecht
Vitesse
The model leans Vitesse at 37%. Expected goals: Jong FC Utrecht 1.59, Vitesse 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 66%. Jong FC Utrecht won 0 of their last 5; Vitesse won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jong FC Utrecht | 36% | 2.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Vitesse | 39% | 2.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vitesse. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
- 1–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong FC Utrecht 0| Jong FC Utrecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 19% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 20% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.