Jong AZ Alkmaar
Jong FC Utrecht
The model leans Jong AZ Alkmaar at 37%. Expected goals: Jong AZ Alkmaar 1.96, Jong FC Utrecht 1.92. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 74%. Jong AZ Alkmaar won 2 of their last 5; Jong FC Utrecht won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jong AZ Alkmaar | 40% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong FC Utrecht | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Jong AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.96 – 1.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–17.8%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
- 1–34.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong AZ Alkmaar 0| Jong AZ Alkmaar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 18% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 21% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 18% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.