Jong AZ Alkmaar
FC Eindhoven
The model leans Jong AZ Alkmaar at 44%. Expected goals: Jong AZ Alkmaar 2.23, FC Eindhoven 1.79. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 75%. Jong AZ Alkmaar won 2 of their last 5; FC Eindhoven won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jong AZ Alkmaar | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.61 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Eindhoven | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Jong AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.23 – 1.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 62% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong AZ Alkmaar −0.5| Jong AZ Alkmaar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 20% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 20% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 16% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.