De Graafschap
Jong AZ Alkmaar
The model leans De Graafschap at 57%. Expected goals: De Graafschap 3.05, Jong AZ Alkmaar 1.66. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 78%. De Graafschap won 0 of their last 5; Jong AZ Alkmaar won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1De Graafschap | 65% | 1.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong AZ Alkmaar | 18% | 5.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: De Graafschap. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.05 – 1.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 69% | 31% |
| Both teams to score | Yes77% | No23% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–25.8%
- 4–15.4%
- 1–14.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: De Graafschap −1.5| De Graafschap line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 19% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 16% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.