Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
The model leans De Graafschap at 50%. Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.28, De Graafschap 2.02. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. Helmond Sport won 0 of their last 4; De Graafschap won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Helmond Sport | 23% | 4.35 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.28 | – | – | – |
| 2De Graafschap | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: De Graafschap. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 2.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–27.5%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: De Graafschap −0.5| Helmond Sport line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 22% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.