VVV-Venlo
De Graafschap
The model leans De Graafschap at 40%. Expected goals: VVV-Venlo 1.62, De Graafschap 1.90. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. VVV-Venlo won 3 of their last 4; De Graafschap won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1VVV-Venlo | 32% | 3.09 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.19 | – | – | – |
| 2De Graafschap | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: De Graafschap. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 1.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.6%
- 1–35.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: De Graafschap −0.5| VVV-Venlo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 17% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 22% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.