De Graafschap
Almere City FC
The model leans De Graafschap at 42%. Expected goals: De Graafschap 2.43, Almere City FC 2.11. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 81%. De Graafschap won 0 of their last 5; Almere City FC won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1De Graafschap | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Almere City FC | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
Pick: De Graafschap. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.43 – 2.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 66% | 34% |
| Both teams to score | Yes80% | No20% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–25.8%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–15.5%
- 3–15.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: De Graafschap −0.5| De Graafschap line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 18% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 19% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 16% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.