FC Den Bosch
Almere City FC
The model leans Almere City FC at 42%. Expected goals: FC Den Bosch 2.04, Almere City FC 2.37. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 79%. FC Den Bosch won 1 of their last 4; Almere City FC won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Den Bosch | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.85 | – | – | – |
| 2Almere City FC | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Almere City FC. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.04 – 2.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 64% | 36% |
| Both teams to score | Yes79% | No21% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–16.0%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–35.6%
- 1–35.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Almere City FC −0.5| FC Den Bosch line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 16% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 19% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 18% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.