De Graafschap
Telstar
The model leans Telstar at 50%. Expected goals: De Graafschap 1.65, Telstar 2.22. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. De Graafschap won 0 of their last 5; Telstar won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1De Graafschap | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Telstar | 50% | 2.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Telstar. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 2.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.5%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–36.3%
- 2–35.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Telstar −0.5| De Graafschap line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 15% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 20% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.