Telstar
Ajax
The model leans Ajax at 37%. Expected goals: Telstar 1.65, Ajax 1.73. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Telstar won 2 of their last 5; Ajax won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Telstar | 36% | 2.78 | 5.25 | 18% | +18 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.06 | 4.75 | 20% | +5 |
| 2Ajax | 39% | 2.54 | 1.53 | 62% | −23 |
Pick: Ajax. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 1.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
- 1–05.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Telstar 0| Telstar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 18% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 23% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.