Sion
Ajax
The model leans Sion at 40%. Expected goals: Sion 1.65, Ajax 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Sion won 3 of their last 6; Ajax won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sion | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Ajax | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sion. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sion 0| Sion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.