NAC Breda
VVV-Venlo
The model leans NAC Breda at 50%. Expected goals: NAC Breda 1.64, VVV-Venlo 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. NAC Breda won 2 of their last 6; VVV-Venlo won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NAC Breda | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.71 | – | – | – |
| 2VVV-Venlo | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: NAC Breda. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–17.2%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NAC Breda −0.5| NAC Breda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.