NAC Breda
Jong Ajax
The model leans NAC Breda at 53%. Expected goals: NAC Breda 2.03, Jong Ajax 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%. NAC Breda won 2 of their last 6; Jong Ajax won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NAC Breda | 60% | 1.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong Ajax | 17% | 5.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: NAC Breda. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 3–16.7%
- 3–06.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NAC Breda −1| NAC Breda line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.