Jong PSV
Jong Ajax
The model leans Jong PSV at 51%. Expected goals: Jong PSV 2.36, Jong Ajax 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 68%. Jong PSV won 2 of their last 5; Jong Ajax won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jong PSV | 59% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong Ajax | 21% | 4.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: Jong PSV. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.36 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong PSV −1| Jong PSV line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 21% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 19% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.