RKC Waalwijk
Jong PSV
The model leans RKC Waalwijk at 51%. Expected goals: RKC Waalwijk 2.47, Jong PSV 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 72%. RKC Waalwijk won 0 of their last 4; Jong PSV won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1RKC Waalwijk | 58% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Jong PSV | 22% | 4.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: RKC Waalwijk. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.47 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–05.6%
- 3–25.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RKC Waalwijk −1| RKC Waalwijk line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 21% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 19% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.