Helmond Sport
RKC Waalwijk
The model leans RKC Waalwijk at 50%. Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.18, RKC Waalwijk 1.99. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. Helmond Sport won 0 of their last 4; RKC Waalwijk won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Helmond Sport | 21% | 4.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2RKC Waalwijk | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: RKC Waalwijk. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.18 – 1.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RKC Waalwijk −1| Helmond Sport line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 14% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.