Roda JC Kerkrade
Helmond Sport
The model leans Roda JC Kerkrade at 52%. Expected goals: Roda JC Kerkrade 1.83, Helmond Sport 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%. Roda JC Kerkrade won 2 of their last 4; Helmond Sport won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Roda JC Kerkrade | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Helmond Sport | 16% | 6.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roda JC Kerkrade. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.83 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.3%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.8%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 39% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roda JC Kerkrade −1| Roda JC Kerkrade line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 12% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.