FC Emmen
Roda JC Kerkrade
The model leans Roda JC Kerkrade at 39%. Expected goals: FC Emmen 1.48, Roda JC Kerkrade 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%. FC Emmen won 3 of their last 5; Roda JC Kerkrade won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Emmen | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.95 | – | – | – |
| 2Roda JC Kerkrade | 43% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roda JC Kerkrade. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Emmen 0| FC Emmen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.