FC Dordrecht
Roda JC Kerkrade
The model leans Roda JC Kerkrade at 39%. Expected goals: FC Dordrecht 1.27, Roda JC Kerkrade 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. FC Dordrecht won 1 of their last 6; Roda JC Kerkrade won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Dordrecht | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Roda JC Kerkrade | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roda JC Kerkrade. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Dordrecht 0| FC Dordrecht line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 18% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.