Jong PSV
TOP Oss
The model leans Jong PSV at 44%. Expected goals: Jong PSV 2.03, TOP Oss 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. Jong PSV won 2 of their last 5; TOP Oss won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jong PSV | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.32 | – | – | – |
| 2TOP Oss | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Jong PSV. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.8%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–16.0%
- 2–05.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Jong PSV −0.5| Jong PSV line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 21% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 21% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.