AZ Alkmaar
Genk
The model leans AZ Alkmaar at 50%. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.85, Genk 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6; Genk won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AZ Alkmaar | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Genk | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.85 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AZ Alkmaar −0.5| AZ Alkmaar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.