PSV Eindhoven
Royal Antwerp
The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 67%. Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.93, Royal Antwerp 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 59%. PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6; Royal Antwerp won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | 77% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.86 | – | – | – |
| 2Royal Antwerp | 9% | 11.27 | – | – | – |
Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.93 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–08.7%
- 3–08.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–18.3%
- 4–06.2%
- 4–16.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −2| PSV Eindhoven line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| -1 | 58% | 20% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 13% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.