Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

PSV Eindhoven

11
Lost

Royal Antwerp

The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 67%. Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.93, Royal Antwerp 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 59%. PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6; Royal Antwerp won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1PSV Eindhoven77%1.31
XDraw15%6.86
2Royal Antwerp9%11.27

Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.93 – 0.97
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.575%25%
3.555%45%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 208.7%
  • 308.5%
  • 218.5%
  • 318.3%
  • 406.2%
  • 416.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −2
PSV Eindhoven lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.558%42%
-158%20%23%
-0.577%23%
077%13%9%
+0.591%9%
+191%6%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.