Gent
Club Brugge
The model leans Club Brugge at 51%. Expected goals: Gent 1.25, Club Brugge 2.14. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%. Gent won 4 of their last 6; Club Brugge won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gent | 21% | 4.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Club Brugge | 57% | 1.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Club Brugge. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 2.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–27.7%
- 0–17.2%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Club Brugge −1| Gent line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 13% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 21% | 58% |
| +0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| +1 | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.