Rennes
Club Brugge
The model leans Club Brugge at 41%. Expected goals: Rennes 1.91, Club Brugge 2.19. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 76%. Rennes won 2 of their last 6; Club Brugge won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rennes | 34% | 2.95 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Club Brugge | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Club Brugge. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.91 – 2.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–35.5%
- 2–35.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Club Brugge −0.5| Rennes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 16% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 20% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 19% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.