Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain
The model leans Paris Saint-Germain at 54%. Expected goals: Rennes 1.16, Paris Saint-Germain 2.33. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%. Rennes won 2 of their last 6; Paris Saint-Germain won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rennes | 17% | 5.96 | 6.10 | 16% | +1 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.87 | 4.85 | 20% | +1 |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 63% | 1.59 | 1.45 | 65% | −2 |
Pick: Paris Saint-Germain. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.16 – 2.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–18.3%
- 1–37.5%
- 0–17.2%
- 0–36.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paris Saint-Germain −1| Rennes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 11% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 19% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 22% | 41% |
| +1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.