Rennes
Brentford
The model leans Brentford at 44%. Expected goals: Rennes 1.34, Brentford 1.79. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Rennes won 2 of their last 6; Brentford won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rennes | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Brentford | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brentford. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.34 – 1.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brentford −0.5| Rennes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 16% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.