Leeds United
Brentford
The model leans Leeds United at 36%. Expected goals: Leeds United 1.29, Brentford 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%. Leeds United won 3 of their last 5; Brentford won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leeds United | 37% | 2.69 | 2.80 | 34% | +4 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.37 | 3.50 | 27% | +3 |
| 2Brentford | 33% | 3.02 | 2.40 | 39% | −6 |
Pick: Leeds United. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–110.0%
- 0–08.3%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leeds United 0| Leeds United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.