Lens
Paris Saint-Germain
The model leans Paris Saint-Germain at 43%. Expected goals: Lens 1.40, Paris Saint-Germain 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. Lens won 2 of their last 5; Paris Saint-Germain won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lens | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Paris Saint-Germain. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.40 – 1.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Paris Saint-Germain −0.5| Lens line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.