Strasbourg
Lens
The model leans Lens at 42%. Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.51, Lens 1.88. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Strasbourg won 1 of their last 6; Lens won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Unibet_France| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Strasbourg | 30% | 3.30 | 3.85 | 24% | +6 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.13 | 3.55 | 26% | −2 |
| 2Lens | 45% | 2.20 | 1.90 | 49% | −4 |
Pick: Lens. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.4%
- 0–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lens −0.5| Strasbourg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 17% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 22% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 21% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.