Freiburg
Strasbourg
The model leans Freiburg at 40%. Expected goals: Freiburg 1.71, Strasbourg 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Freiburg won 6 of their last 6; Strasbourg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Freiburg | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Strasbourg | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Freiburg. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.71 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Freiburg −0.5| Freiburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 21% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 23% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.