Freiburg
Werder Bremen
The model leans Freiburg at 54%. Expected goals: Freiburg 1.93, Werder Bremen 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Freiburg won 6 of their last 6; Werder Bremen won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Freiburg | 63% | 1.59 | 1.75 | 54% | +9 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.29 | 3.75 | 25% | −2 |
| 2Werder Bremen | 14% | 7.20 | 4.50 | 21% | −7 |
Pick: Freiburg. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.93 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.6%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.8%
- 0–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Freiburg −1| Freiburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.