Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Verden 04
2–6
Won
Werder Bremen
The model leans Werder Bremen at 80%. Expected goals: Verden 04 0.05, Werder Bremen 6.00. Over 2.5 goals 94%, both teams to score 95%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match100
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Verden 04 | 0% | 10000.00 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 0% | 294.12 | – | – | – |
| 2Werder Bremen | 100% | 1.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: Werder Bremen. Calibrated probability 80% (raw model output 100%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 100%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.05 – 6.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 98% | 2% |
| 2.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 83% | 17% |
| Both teams to score | Yes5% | No95% |
Most likely scores
- 0–518.0%
- 0–618.0%
- 0–715.5%
- 0–415.0%
- 0–811.6%
- 0–310.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 73% · BTTS No 64%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Werder Bremen −2| Verden 04 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -0.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| 0 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| +0.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| +1 | 0% | 2% | 98% |
| +1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.