Fortuna Düsseldorf
Freiburg
The model leans Freiburg at 60%. Expected goals: Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.83, Freiburg 2.19. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Fortuna Düsseldorf won 2 of their last 5; Freiburg won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortuna Düsseldorf | 12% | 8.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Freiburg | 68% | 1.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Freiburg. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 2.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.7%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–38.5%
- 1–37.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Freiburg −1.5| Fortuna Düsseldorf line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 9% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 19% | 68% |
| +0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| +1 | 32% | 24% | 45% |
| +1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.