Fortuna Düsseldorf
Borussia Dortmund
The model leans Borussia Dortmund at 69%. Expected goals: Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.69, Borussia Dortmund 2.74. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 53%. Fortuna Düsseldorf won 2 of their last 5; Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortuna Düsseldorf | 6% | 16.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | 80% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Borussia Dortmund. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.69 – 2.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.2%
- 0–311.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–37.7%
- 0–47.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Borussia Dortmund −2| Fortuna Düsseldorf line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| -0.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| 0 | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| +0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| +1 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| +1.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.