Borussia Dortmund
Roma
The model leans Borussia Dortmund at 43%. Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.67, Roma 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 6; Roma won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Borussia Dortmund | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Roma | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
Pick: Borussia Dortmund. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.9%
- 0–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Borussia Dortmund −0.5| Borussia Dortmund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.