Predictions · Serie A ·
Lecce
0–4
Won
Roma
The model leans Roma at 51%. Expected goals: Lecce 0.65, Roma 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match14
27
58
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lecce | 14% | 7.05 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Roma | 58% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roma. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 1.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.1%
- 0–213.4%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roma −1| Lecce line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 11% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 25% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.