Predictions · Serie A ·
Venezia
0–2
Lost
Lecce
The model leans Venezia at 50%. Expected goals: Venezia 1.42, Lecce 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match53
30
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Venezia | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Lecce | 18% | 5.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Venezia. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes39% | No61% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.8%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Venezia −0.5| Venezia line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 14% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.