Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hoffenheim II
The model leans Fortuna Düsseldorf at 40%. Expected goals: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.78, Hoffenheim II 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. Fortuna Düsseldorf won 2 of their last 5; Hoffenheim II won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortuna Düsseldorf | 43% | 2.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.01 | – | – | – |
| 2Hoffenheim II | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.5%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fortuna Düsseldorf −0.5| Fortuna Düsseldorf line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 21% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 17% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.