Waldhof Mannheim
Fortuna Düsseldorf
The model leans Waldhof Mannheim at 39%. Expected goals: Waldhof Mannheim 1.70, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. Waldhof Mannheim won 1 of their last 5; Fortuna Düsseldorf won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Waldhof Mannheim | 42% | 2.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Fortuna Düsseldorf | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Waldhof Mannheim. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.70 – 1.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Waldhof Mannheim 0| Waldhof Mannheim line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 21% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 23% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.