Hoffenheim II
Jahn Regensburg
The model leans Hoffenheim II at 37%. Expected goals: Hoffenheim II 1.84, Jahn Regensburg 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 71%. Hoffenheim II won 2 of their last 3; Jahn Regensburg won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hoffenheim II | 39% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Jahn Regensburg | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hoffenheim II. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.84 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.0%
- 1–05.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hoffenheim II 0| Hoffenheim II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 19% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 22% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.