Predictions · 3. Liga · outside model coverage

Hoffenheim II

51
Won

Jahn Regensburg

The model leans Hoffenheim II at 37%. Expected goals: Hoffenheim II 1.84, Jahn Regensburg 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 71%. Hoffenheim II won 2 of their last 3; Jahn Regensburg won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Hoffenheim II39%2.53
XDraw24%4.23
2Jahn Regensburg37%2.71

Pick: Hoffenheim II. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.84 – 1.78
LineOverUnder
1.588%12%
2.570%30%
3.549%51%
Both teams to scoreYes70%No30%

Most likely scores

  • 118.8%
  • 218.1%
  • 127.8%
  • 227.2%
  • 315.0%
  • 105.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Hoffenheim II 0
Hoffenheim II lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%19%60%
-0.540%60%
040%22%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%18%20%
+1.580%20%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.