Predictions · 3. Liga · outside model coverage

Viktoria Köln 1904

25
Lost

Jahn Regensburg

The model leans Viktoria Köln 1904 at 38%. Expected goals: Viktoria Köln 1904 1.48, Jahn Regensburg 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Viktoria Köln 1904 won 2 of their last 4; Jahn Regensburg won 1 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Viktoria Köln 190441%2.44
XDraw28%3.59
2Jahn Regensburg31%3.20

Pick: Viktoria Köln 1904. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.26
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.552%48%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.1%
  • 109.6%
  • 218.9%
  • 018.2%
  • 127.6%
  • 207.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Viktoria Köln 1904 0
Viktoria Köln 1904 lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.520%80%
-120%22%58%
-0.542%58%
042%25%32%
+0.568%32%
+168%19%14%
+1.586%14%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.