VfB Stuttgart II
Viktoria Köln 1904
The model leans VfB Stuttgart II at 38%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart II 1.74, Viktoria Köln 1904 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. VfB Stuttgart II won 1 of their last 3; Viktoria Köln 1904 won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfB Stuttgart II | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Viktoria Köln 1904 | 34% | 2.94 | – | – | – |
Pick: VfB Stuttgart II. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
- 0–15.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: VfB Stuttgart II 0| VfB Stuttgart II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 20% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.