Hoffenheim II
Hansa Rostock
The model leans Hansa Rostock at 51%. Expected goals: Hoffenheim II 1.76, Hansa Rostock 2.60. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 77%. Hoffenheim II won 2 of their last 3; Hansa Rostock won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hoffenheim II | 25% | 4.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Hansa Rostock | 55% | 1.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hansa Rostock. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 2.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 63% | 37% |
| Both teams to score | Yes77% | No23% |
Most likely scores
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.6%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–35.8%
- 2–15.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hansa Rostock −1| Hoffenheim II line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 13% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 18% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 20% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.