Blackburn Rovers
Strasbourg
The model leans Strasbourg at 50%. Expected goals: Blackburn Rovers 0.77, Strasbourg 1.49. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%. Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 6; Strasbourg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Blackburn Rovers | 18% | 5.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Strasbourg | 53% | 1.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Strasbourg. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.77 – 1.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.5%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–211.6%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Strasbourg −0.5| Blackburn Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 14% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 26% | 54% |
| +0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| +1 | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.