Manchester United
Paris Saint-Germain
The model leans Manchester United at 37%. Expected goals: Manchester United 1.57, Paris Saint-Germain 1.51. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 63%. Manchester United won 2 of their last 6; Paris Saint-Germain won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester United | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 36% | 2.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Manchester United. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 1.51| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–16.9%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester United 0| Manchester United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 20% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.