Manchester United
Ipswich Town
The model leans Manchester United at 63%. Expected goals: Manchester United 2.46, Ipswich Town 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 54%. Manchester United won 2 of their last 6; Ipswich Town won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester United | 72% | 1.39 | 1.33 | 70% | +1 |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.59 | 5.25 | 18% | 0 |
| 2Ipswich Town | 10% | 9.66 | 8.00 | 12% | −1 |
Pick: Manchester United. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.46 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester United −1.5| Manchester United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| -0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| 0 | 72% | 16% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.