Gent
KV Mechelen
The model leans Gent at 50%. Expected goals: Gent 1.62, KV Mechelen 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Gent won 4 of their last 6; KV Mechelen won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gent | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| 2KV Mechelen | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Gent. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–17.3%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Gent −0.5| Gent line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.