Sporting Charleroi
KV Mechelen
The model leans Sporting Charleroi at 50%. Expected goals: Sporting Charleroi 1.57, KV Mechelen 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Sporting Charleroi won 4 of their last 6; KV Mechelen won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting Charleroi | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.60 | – | – | – |
| 2KV Mechelen | 21% | 4.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sporting Charleroi. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
- 0–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting Charleroi −0.5| Sporting Charleroi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.