Sporting Charleroi
Rayo Vallecano
The model leans Rayo Vallecano at 38%. Expected goals: Sporting Charleroi 0.91, Rayo Vallecano 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. Sporting Charleroi won 4 of their last 6; Rayo Vallecano won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting Charleroi | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Rayo Vallecano | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rayo Vallecano. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.91 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting Charleroi 0| Sporting Charleroi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 19% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.